Forecasting, in product development, gives us a sense of control. Through simulations, engineers are able to determine how their products will behave and teams use spreadsheets to make analyses.

Predictions are essentially guesses. 🤔

Actual progress occurs after forecasting has been replaced by the use of feedback loops.

Instead of trying to perfect the prediction of what the outcome will be, organizations create something tangible and conduct a test.

A prototype demonstrates elements of what the simulation was unable to capture:

• How the material acts
• How the part feels in one’s hand
• How the part fits within the assembly
• How the part operates under actual conditions

This type of feedback is far better than just another prediction. Once the first part has been created, the pace of learning increases.

Test → Learn → Improve → Repeat

At each point, individuals can reduce their level of uncertainty and reach the final product.

Forecasters attempt to avoid making mistakes while feedback loops use the process of making mistakes to create progress.

In today’s environment of creating products, the individuals and organizations that learn quickly ultimately win.